Stage 3 Update: Understanding coastal hazards on the northern Bellarine

Why this matters

To plan for the future of our coastline, we need to understand which areas are most exposed to coastal hazards – like erosion, flooding and storm damage - and under what conditions these might occur.

How we’re studying the coast

We’ve used the best available science and data to break the northern Bellarine coastline into 9 precincts. These precincts help us focus our planning efforts and have been defined by:

• Shoreline type (eg. Sandy beaches, rocky cliffs, estuarine)
• Sediment movement (how sand shifts due to waves and wind)

What shapes our coastline?

Our coastline is shaped by natural forces like:

• Waves and tides

• Wind patterns (southerly winds in summer, northerly in winter)

• Sediment movement (how sand travels along and across the shore)

These coastal processes change with the seasons and can be affected by things like storms or man-made structures (e.g. seawalls).

Coastal hazards

We've already asked for your input on coastal values and known coastal hazards during earlier consultation. Your feedback helped shape this work along with more than 47 localised studies and state, national and global studies.

We've identified these coastal hazards are affecting the northern Bellarine coast now and in the future

• Erosion (short term and long term)

• Groundwater (saline intrusion)

• Inundation (permanent and storm tide)

What we're modelling

We've looked at a range of future scenarios to understand how climate change might affect our coast. These include:

• Increased erosion
• Rising sea levels
• Storm surges

We've used these scenarios to map out areas that could be at risk and these are based on data from the Port Phillip Bay Coastal Hazard Assessment.

You can view these coastal hazard exposure maps here on CoastKit.

What's next?

Stage 4 is about assessing the likelihood and impact of coastal hazard risks.

We're still working on understanding how cultural values of Wadawurrung Traditional Owners may be affected. This is a vital part of the process and will be included once confirmed.

As we move forward, we'll continue to share updates and invite your thoughts.